This paper aims to analyze the mechanism of "multiple plans conflicts" and "multiple plans integration". Particularly, it attempts to fill the research gap about the origin of "multiple plans conflicts" and to put forward suggestions for "multiple plans integration". The research method is to investigate into the origin of "multiple plans conflicts" based on the theory of spatiotemporal cone and methodological analysis on planning. The results show that:1)Planning and its cognitive domain may be viewed as a function defined along the time axis. The essential feature of planning is its orientation towards the future. The cognitive limitations of human result in the uncertainty and conflicts on planning. 2)Conflicts over plans existing in spatiotemporal dimension may be categorized into vertical, horizontal or multiple ones. 3)The rigidity of land use planning is its essential characteristic. It is concluded that: 1)Planning and the underlying methodology is to provide a reasonable guidance to plan human activities in favor of sustainable development based on predictions of the uncertain future(in timet+1) and current knowledge(at timet), which leads to a methodological paradox to cope with uncertain future by certain current knowledge. 2)Multiple plans conflicts come from three aspects: the vertical conflict is resulted from incomplete knowledge of planners at a specific time; the horizontal conflict reflects the problem on integrating conflicted individual purposes into a common purpose under the same spatiotemporal dimension; and the multiple conflict is a consequence of the vertical impact from upper planning. A direction to solve the conflicts and to integrate multiple plans may be to unify the purpose of multiple plans into the sustainable development of the whole socio-economic system, calling for alteration of the planning disciplines. 3)The land use planning should balance its rigidity and flexibility. Firstly, the orientation of planning should consider the real demand of socio-economic development in a long term, and transform the focus of regulation from area and quantity to intensity and modes of land use. Secondly, the mid-term(5 year) planning should be added to enable dynamic adjustments in order to keep the consistency between the short term and the long term planning.%研究目的:研究分析"多规冲突"和"多规合一"的机理,弥补系统剖析"规划冲突"根源的空白,提出"多规合一"的建议.研究方法:借助时空锥理论,通过研究规划的机理,分析"多规冲突"的根源.研究结果:(1)规划及其认知域是时间的函数,对未来的导向性是其最重要的特征;人们对规划存在认知的局限性,导致规划具有先验性和矛盾性.(2)规划存在时空纵向上的冲突、横向上的冲突和复合性的冲突.(3)土地利用规划的刚性是其本质特征.研究结论:(1)规划及其研制的机理,是人们基于当前("t"时)确定性的认知,对未来("t+1"时)不确定性发展的预期,制定从当前到未来较合理的引导人们开展有利于自身可持续发展行动的计划和安排.这使规划产生了一个悖论,即用"t"时确定性的认知,先验性地规划"t+1"时不确定的未来的变化.(2")多规冲突"的产生存在三种机理,纵向冲突是由研制规划时人们仅拥有不完全的知识而引起的;横向冲突是由各个规划主体都将自身系统的优化目标作为同一时空中制定各自规划的目标而引起的;复合冲突是由上一层级规划通过纵向传导而引起的.解决"规划冲突"并实现"多规合一"的方向是,应将社会经济系统整体的可持续发展作为各个规划的共同目标,转变规划研制战略的指导思想.(3)平衡土地利用规划的刚性和弹性,一是应将土地利用规划研制的战略导向与现阶段及今后较长时期内社会经济发展的现实需求相结合,加快土地利用规划研制战略导向由注重"面积"、"数量"约束型向注重"利用强度"和"利用方式"约束型的转变;二是增加中期(5年)土地利用规划,实施土地利用规划的滚动调整,实现土地利用短期规划和长期规划的衔接.
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