上海市终端能源消费的CO2排放影响因素定量分析

摘要

以对数平均指数法(LMDI)方法为基础,探讨了包括生活能耗在内的上海市终端能源消费CO2排放影响因素的分解方法,定量研究了能源强度下降、能源结构优化、产业结构调整、经济发展规模和人口数量等影响因素对CO2排放变化量的贡献率.研究表明,上海市2005～2009年CO2排放增长了2949万t,如果不采取任何减缓措施,经济增长和人口数量增加将导致CO2排放增长量相当于现在的2.5倍.能源强度下降、能源结构优化和产业结构调整起到了减缓CO2排放增长的作用,对减缓CO2排放增长的贡献率分别为-98％、-50％和-22％(.)与2000～2005年对比分析发现,工业部门能源强度下降和能源结构优化的减缓作用都有所下降,而产业结构调整开始发挥减排的作用,但贡献率还很低.生活能耗的CO2排放影响因素中,相较于人口数量增长,人均生活能耗上升是导致CO2排放增加的主要因素,且贡献率逐渐增大.%A quantitative analysis of the major factors influencing the CO2 emissions from final energy consumption in Shanghai based on the Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method was presented. Besides the CO2 emissions from industrial energy consumption, the emissions from urban household energy use were also considered in the analysis. The major factors influencing the CO2 emissions including energy intensity, energy and industrial structure, economic growth, and urban population were thus identified and adopted as the parameters for the LMDI method. The results show that the actual CO2 emissions in Shanghai increased 29.49 million ton from 2005 to 2009. If no reduction approaches were employed, the incensement of the emissions induced by the economic and population growth would be about 2.5 times of the actual value in Shanghai. The decline in energy intensity, energy structure adjustment, and industrial structure adjustment were the major determinants for the CO2 emissions reduction, and the contribution rates of the three factors were -98%, -50%, and -22%, respectively. Comparing with the period of 2000-2005, energy intensity decline and energy structure adjustment as the driving forces of CO2 emissions reduction weakened. At the same time, the industrial structure adjustment began to benefit the CO2 emissions reduction whereas the contribution rate was still small. The increasing per capita urban household energy use with the population growth was the major factor on the rise of CO2 emissions, and the contribution rate increased gradually.