通过构建包含能源消耗,碳排放与碳减排政策的动态一般均衡模型,对碳总量减排与碳强度减排两类政策的减排效应与经济效应进行了模拟分析.结果显示,不同的碳减排政策均能够有效降低碳排放量,实现碳强度下降的目标,但由于政策的减排力度和减排路径差异原因,碳总量减排政策对经济增长的抑制作用较强,碳强度减排政策对经济增长的负向影响程度较低.基于社会福利和减排成本视角对不同碳减排政策的成本收益进行对比发现,与强度减排相比,总量减排方案下的社会福利更高且其减排成本略小,其具有一定的比较优势.促进碳强度减排政策向碳总量减排政策的稳步过渡,是实现福利增进与环境改善等多重红利的重要途径.%By specifying a dynamic general equilibrium model including energy consumption, carbon emission and carbon emission reduction policies, a simulation analysis of both emission reduction effects and economic effects of carbon cap policy and carbon intensity policy was performed. The results showed that different carbon reduction policies effectively controlled carbon emission and achieved the goal of reducing carbon intensity. However, due to different policy strengths and different paths taken in the policy, carbon cap reduction policy had a strong inhibitory effect on economic growth while the negative impact of carbon intensity reduction policy on economic growth was relatively weak. Furthermore, based on the perspectives of social welfare and emission reduction cost, a cost-benefit analysis of the different carbon emission reduction policies was done. The findings were that compared with the carbon intensity policy, the carbon cap policy had comparative strengths in enhancing social welfare and lowering emission reduction cost. Thus, the transition from carbon intensity policy to carbon cap policy was the key to welfare enhancement, environmental improvement and other dividends.
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