In this study, a new "dynamic comprehensive evaluation model" for regional environmental risk assessment which based on the "vertical-and-horizontal" scatter degree method and the "time ordered weighted averaging operator" method was developed, and the strategy that named "risk assessment-zoning-differentiated management" was proposed for the management of regional environmental risk. In addition, this method was applied for the regional environmental risk assessment and the differentiated management for 18cities in Henan province. The results showed that (1) the maximum values of comprehensive environmental risk were 13.79, 13.46 and 13.28, which were identified in Zhengzhou, Xuchang and Luohe, respectively. In contrast, the minimum values of environmental risk were found in the cities of Xinyang, Nanyang and Sanmenxia, and the values were only 4.15, 4.16 and 5.01, respectively. (2) Using GIS technology and the hierarchical cluster analysis method, the spatial variation of comprehensive risk in 18 cities of Henan province was divided into five regions: high risk zone (Zhengzhou, Xuchang and Luohe), relative high risk zone (Jiaozuo, Puyang and Hebi), medium risk zone (Kaifeng and Anyang), relative low risk zone (Pingdingshan, Shangqiu and Zhoukou) and low risk zone (Luoyang, Sanmenxia and Nanyang) (3) The differentiated management strategies for different cities were proposed base on the difference of environmental risk level and its mainly contribution factors according to the principle of "critical control, priority management for high risk area, and step by step control, strengthen prevention for medium and low risk area". The results indicated that the proposed method of "risk assessment-zoning-differentiated management" can not only evaluate the environmental risk at regional scale but also identify the mainly contribution factors. The differentiated management strategies will better meet the actual needs for the coordinated development of the local economic and the social environment.%借鉴灾害风险管理理论,运用"纵横向拉开档次法"和"时序加权平均算子法"构建了区域环境风险动态综合评价模型,提出了"风险评价-等级分区-差异化管理"的区域环境风险管理方法,并以河南省为案例研究对象,开展河南省18个市级单元环境风险的动态综合评价和"差异化"管理研究.结果显示:(1)郑州、许昌、漯河等市综合环境风险指数最高,分别为13.79、13.46和13.28,信阳、南阳和三门峡等市综合环境风险指数最低,分别为4.15、4.16和5.01;(2)采用系统分层聚类法将河南省18个市级单元聚为5类环境风险等级区,其中,郑州、许昌、漯河等属于高风险区;焦作、濮阳、鹤壁等属于较高风险区;安阳、开封属于中风险区;平顶山、商丘、周口等市属于较低风险区;洛阳、三门峡、南阳等市属于低风险区;(3)根据河南省各市环境风险等级及主导因素的差异,遵循高、较高风险区"重点控制、优先管理"、中低风险区"逐步控制、加强防范"的原则,提出了"差异化"的风险管理方案.研究结果表明,该方法不仅可实现区域环境风险动态综合评价,识别区域环境风险主要贡献因子,而且"差异化"的风险管理方案更符合地方经济社会环境协调发展的实际需求.
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