1961-2014年陕西省气候资源变化趋势及突变分析

摘要

To provide references for the rational exploitation and utilization of climatic resources,the trend of climate change,especially the abrupt change characteristics of climatic factors in Shaanxi were investigated.Based on the observed meteorological data from 78 meteorological stations,the trend and abrupt change of climate resources,e.g.sunshine time,thermal resources and water,in Shaanxi Province from 1961 to 2014 were analyzed using linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall abrupt test,nonparametric test and moving-t test methods.The results indicated that:By taking Shaanxi Province as whole,the average temperature,accumulated temperature displayed significant increasing trends.The precipitation and potential evapotranspiration had no significant decreasing trends,sunshine time and wind speed had significant decreasing trends,and aridity index had no significant increasing trend.The abrupt change of temperature occurred significantly in the mid-1990s in Shaanxi as a whole,moreover,it occurred earlier in north Shaanxi than in central and south Shaanxi.The abrupt change of accumulated temperature occurred significantly in the late 1990s,and accumulated temperature occurred significantly in the 2004.There had no tested significantly abrupt change of precipitation in Shaanxi as a whole.However,the abrupt change of precipitation occurred only in the south Shaanxi in the mid-1980s.The abrupt change of sunshine time occurred in the mid-1970s,it occurred earlier in north Shaanxi and south Shaanxi than in central Shaanxi.The abrupt change of wind speed occurred in the early 1990s,it occurred earlier in north Shaanxi than in central Shaanxi and in south Shaanxi.Their abrupt change of potential evapotranspiration occurred in mid 1970s,and there is no abrupt change of aridity index.Although the change trends of temperature,light and wind resource during the period were obvious,their impact on agricultural production and ecological environment had advantages and disadvantages:Significant increase of temperature was beneficial to the growth of overwintering crops,but the risk of crop diseases and insect pests and high temperature stress is also increased.Therefore,decisions about rational exploitation and utilization of climatic resources should be made to develop advantages and avoid disadvantages.%为揭示陕西气候变化趋势,特别是气候要素的突变特征,为合理开发利用气候资源提供参考.基于陕西省78个气象站点1961-2014年逐日气象观测数据,运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和滑动T检验法,分析陕西省光、热、水等气候资源的变化趋势与突变特征.结果表明:50多年来陕西及各区域气温及积温均呈显著上升趋势,平均气温在20世纪90年代中期发生显著突变,北部突变时间早于中部及南部;降水减少趋势不显著,且没有检测到显著突变;日照时数及风速均呈显著下降趋势,且均存在显著突变,日照突变发生在70年代中期,风速突变发生在90年代前期;蒸散量呈不显著下降趋势,突变发生在70年代中后期;干燥度呈不显著上升趋势,没有检测到显著突变.陕西温、光及风资源变化趋势显著,这些气候资源的显著变化对陕西农业生产和生态环境的影响利弊共存,热量资源的显著增加利于越冬农作物生长,但农作物病虫害发生及遭遇高温热害的风险也加大,在农业生产和生态环境决策上应合理利用气候资源,进而趋利避害.