山西晋祠泉在引水条件下的可再生性研究

摘要

This paper established a fuzzy equation of the discharge of the Jinci spring,precipitation,Fenhe river's leakage,drainage of coal mine and artificial yield of water on the basis of applying fuzzy linear regression and time series analysis and analyzing long-time regime information,and then forecasted the recovery of the Jinci spring after the completion of the Wanjiazhai project,the approximate recovery time of the Jinci spring was predicted under different conditions. In general,the recovery time is 2007～2009.Water saving is the most important countermeasures for the Jinci spring's recovery,and its water quality should be protected at the same time.%应用模糊线性回归与时间序列分析手段，通过分析长期动态资料,建立起晋祠泉流量与降水量、汾河渗漏量、矿坑排水量及人工开采量之间的模糊关系方程;在此基础上预测了在万家寨引黄工程完工后，晋祠泉域在地下水得到涵养条件下的可再生性，同时还预测了不同方案调控条件下，晋祠泉的大致出流时间。在一般情况下，晋祠泉的大致出流时间在2007～2009年之间。为了实现晋祠早日复流，节流是今后最重要的管理措施，同时应该注意晋祠泉的水质保护问题。