For more objective probabilistic reasoning, a new probability theory was created in this paper. Through exploring the nature of randomness of some simple randomized trials, it can be known that the randomness of events has two interlinked attributes. The two random events A and -A always exist in a pair, and these random events can be divided into main events and adjoining events. Their respective probabilities are main probability (large number probability ) and adjoining probability ( sudden probability ). A connection number was used to describe them. The probability of the connection number was called connection probability (complex probability). The i in the connection probability is a key parameter for the transformation of main events and adjoining events in the random experiment. The meaning of negative probability was explained, the application of connection probability in probabilistic reasoning was also illustrated in this paper.%为创建一种新的概率理论使概率推理更为客观,借助简单随机试验探讨随机性的本质,说明了事件的随机性是2个事物相互联系的一种属性.具有随机性的事件称为随机事件,随机事件A与A成对存在,但可以分为主事件和伴随事件,由此导出主概率和伴随概率,它们分别对应于主事件的大数概率和即或概率.用联系数表示这2个概率,该联系数称为联系概率(复概率),联系概率中的i是主事件和伴随事件相互转换的纽带,并且对产生的负概率作了解释,举例说明了联系概率在概率推理中的应用.
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