近三十年新疆喀什市气候变化特征分析

摘要

分析喀什市1981—2010年的气温、降水量、日照时数等气象资料,得到近三十年来的气候变化趋势,主要表现为年平均气温均呈上升趋势（0.71℃/10a）;四季气温变化差异不明显,各季节均呈上升趋势。气候变暖贡献最大的是秋季,其次是春季;年平均降水量总体上呈上升趋势（8.115mm/10a）,20世纪80年代初到90年代末降水量出现了上升趋势,但比较平稳。自21世纪以来,年降水量的波动幅度较大,而且波动增长趋势显著,相对变化率较大;日照时数也呈上升趋势,尤其是1995年以后增长趋势较为明显。该区气候变化与二氧化碳的增加,人类活动的影响,日照时间增长有密切关系。%Analysis of Kashi 1981-2010 year temperature,precipitation,sunshine hours and other meteorological data,Has nearly 30 years of climate change trend,Mainly for the annual mean temperatures are on the rise（0.71℃/10a）.Four season temperature difference,Seasons were rising trend.For climate warming contributed most of the autumn,Followed by the spring.The average annual precipitation of the overall upward trend（8.115mm/10a）.precipitation have a rising trend of Nineteen eighties to the late 90＇s early,But relatively stable.Since twenty-first Century,the annual precipitation fluctuations of the larger,and the fluctuation trend growth significantly,relative variability.Sunshine hours are also on the rise,especially after 1995 year growth trend more obvious.In the area of climate change by the increase of closely related to carbon dioxide,the impact of human activities,the sunshine time is growth.