基于空间相关的城市建筑能耗分布量化模型及应用--以伦敦非住宅建筑为例

摘要

应用统计分析方法定量分析空间因素对建筑用能的影响，是对建筑能耗水平进行精确模拟、探索城市层面建筑能源使用规律以及制定相应节能目标的基础。为提出含有区域特征的能耗密度模型，采用贝叶斯方法结合空间分析技术，将空间和区域位置对建筑能耗的影响加以量化分析，并将结果应用于城市尺度的能耗分析中。研究依据英国伦敦的非住宅建筑能耗数据，借助地理信息系统将非住宅建筑的物理、能耗数据与空间位置信息整合，根据地理学的空间分析模型计算非住宅建筑在连续空间关系中产生的用能相关性，结合贝叶斯方法计算能耗概率分布结果，提出精细计算和分析城市空间单元建筑用能差异的方法，有益于地方政府进一步针对空间单元采取更有效的节能政策。%The paper proposes a Bayesian spatial model, the analysis reflects the spatial variability of energy consumption due to the influence of district features, and using it on city-scale energy analysis based on the non-do-mestic buildings data of London.This paper presents that a new integrated analysis can associate standard spatial a-nalysis technology for energy consumption of neighborhood district.By incorporating with Bayesian approach, the resulting model is able to describe the spreads due to variation of energy consumption across districts within a higher accuracy .The proposed method enhances the building energy analysis in a higher resolution that can be used for es-timating the probability distribution of the gross energy consumption at micro-level.The final adoption example of London demonstrated that the method as a spatial analysis tool for building energy consumption have unique advan-tages and wide applicability.