基于MCE-CA模型的快速城镇化地区开发区边界划定——以山东省惠民经济开发区为例

摘要

为科学划定开发区的发展方向区,优化用地空间布局,遏制开发区蔓延式扩展,以山东省惠民经济开发区为例,应用MCE-CA模型,借助Erdas和ArcGIS进行数据处理分析,将"正规划"和"反规划"理念运用于开发区用地布局规划实践,划定惠民经济开发区2020年的发展方向区.结果表明:(1)2006—2015年,开发区城镇用地扩张迅速,城镇化进程持续加快,蔓延性增长特征明显;(2)开发区2020年的城镇用地规模为1521.03 hm2,其中主区170.00 hm2,发展方向区为1351.03 hm2;(3)划定的发展方向区提升了开发区的用地聚集度和紧凑度,更符合经济与生态协调发展的生态型开发区建设模式.应用MCE-CA模型能够实现影响开发区扩展因素的定量化和空间化表达.%To explore the quantitative method of the demarcation of development zone growth boundary , it can optimize the spatial structure of the development zone , and to curb the spread of urban land expansion .Making the development zone of Huimin as the object with the MCE-CA model , combined with positive planning and anti-plan-ning, to process and analysis the data by Erdas and ArcGIS .Exploring the demarcation of development zone growth boundary in 2020 , the aim is to provide the basis for the land use and management of development zone .The results show:(1) During 2006—2015, the urban land of development zone expanded rapidly , the angle and the relative distance of the center of gravity of the urban land increased significantly , the urbanization process of the Develop-ment zone continues to accelerate , the characteristic of sprawl was obvious .( 2) The urban land scale of the devel-opment zone will be 1521.03 hm2 , the main area was 170.00 hm2 , the development direction zone will be 1351.03 hm2 .(3) The development direction zone to enhance the aggregation and compactness , significantly re-duced the speed of urban land expansion in the development zone;it can optimize the spatial structure of the devel-opment zone , and to curb the spread of urban land expansion , meet the need of construction of ecological develop-ment zone which coordinated development of economics and ecosystem .The application of MCE-CA model could re-alize the quantification and spatial expression to the factors effecting the development zone .