黑龙江省能源资源开发的经济效应分析

摘要

Based on the coupling relationship between the cyclical fluctuations of economic development in Heilongjiang Province and the growth of energy resource exploitation,this research introduced "resource curse coefficient" theory to determine the resource curse phenomenon of resource exploitation on regional economic development,including the occurrence time,the developing trend,the strength of curse in different years,moreover,analysed the reason of long-term curse effect by the research on the transmission mechanism of the curse.Research showed that:there is a good coupling relationship between resource exploitation and economic development trajectory in Heilongjiang Province,from a long-term point of view,resource exploitation has a severe curse effect on economic development.;while the curse degree of resource exploitation has steadily declined in recent years,the curse retardance still results curse effect in blocking the economic development in Heilongjiang Province,and will continue for a long period of time.Curse effect formation is closely related to the increasing investment of financial spending in energy exploitation while significantly reduced investment in science,technology and education,and closely related to resource that is the path of economic development.%在分析黑龙江省经济发展的周期波动与能源资源开发增长在时间序列上的耦合关系的基础上,引入资源“诅咒系数”理论来测定资源开发对区域经济发展的诅咒现象出现时间、发展走向、不同年份诅咒强度,并通过诅咒的传导机制研究剖析诅咒效应长期作用的原因.结果表明:黑龙江省资源开发与经济发展轨迹之间存在着良好的耦合关系,资源开发长期上看对经济发展存在着严重的诅咒效应;近年来资源开发的诅咒程度虽然呈持续下降态势,但诅咒的延迟性致使诅咒效应仍阻碍着黑龙江省经济的发展并还会持续较长一段时间.诅咒效应形成与财政开支不断增大,能源开发投入导致科技、教育财政支出大幅度减少存在着密切的关联,也与资源对经济发展路径锁定性密切相关.