基于．卿的潍坊市近50年的干湿特征分析

摘要

[Objective] This study aimed to analyze the evolution characteristics and occurrence patterns of droughts and floods in Weifang City. [Method] Based on the monthly precipitation data during 1961-2010 obtained from nine meteorological sta- tions of Weifang City, by using standardized precipitation index, monthly SPI index of Weifang City during the past 50 years was calculated to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and humidification in Weifang City. [Result] The results showed that the variation of drought and humidification had stage characteristics in Weifang City, which was relatively humid in the 1960s and 1970s and developed from extremely humid in early 1960s to dry in late 1970s, persistent drought was observed throughout the range of Weifang City in the 1980s, and the variation tended to be smooth during the 1990s-2000s. Spatial distribution of drought and humidification in Weifang City showed certain regional characteristics. In the 1960s, the mid-west region of Weifang City was relatively humid, while the southeastern region was relatively dry; in the 1970s, there was little difference among the drought and humidification extent in each region; in the 1980s, each region of Weifang City was generally dry, specifically, drought in the southeastern region was the most severe, while drought in the northern region was the slightest; in the 1990s and 2000s, variation of drought and humidification in each region of Weifang City was basically the same. The uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipi- tation led to abnormal distribution of drought and humidification in some areas, such as the abnormal phenomenon in 1999; the spatial distribution of drought and humidi- fication duration in each generation had their own characteristics, which brought diffi- culties to the unified deployment of drought and flood control departments. [Conclu- sion] This study provided theoretical basis for the drought resistance, waterlogging prevention and disaster reduction in Weifang City under the background of climate change.%[目的]该研究旨在分析潍坊市干旱与洪涝气象灾害的演变特征和发生规律。[方法]基于1961—2010年潍坊市9个气象观测站的逐月降水资料，采用标准化降水指数为指标，计算出潍坊市近50年逐月的5用指数，分析了潍坊市的干湿时空分布特征。【结果】结果表明，潍坊市干湿变化具有阶段性特征，20世纪六七十年代相对较为湿润，并且由60年代初期的极端湿润向70年代末期干旱方向发展，20世纪80年代潍坊市区域持续干旱，20世纪90年代一21世纪00年代震荡波动变化趋于平缓。潍坊市干湿空间分布上具有一定的区域性j20世纪60年代中西部区域相对较为湿润，东南部区域较旱；70年代各区域干湿程度相差不大；80年代各区域普遍较旱，其中东南部干旱最重，北部最轻；20世纪90年代-21世纪00年代各区域干湿变化基本一致。由于降水的时空分布不均，造成局地的干湿分布异常现象，如1999年；各年代间干湿时间长度的空间分布也有各自特点，为抗旱防汛部门的统一部署带来难度。[结论]该研究为应对气候变化背景下潍坊市抗旱防涝减灾提供理论依据。