暴雨预报的力子天气学模式和应用实例

摘要

[Objective] The paper was to analyze lizi synoptic meteorology of 13 rain- storm processes during the flood season of Hunan Province in 2010. [Method] Using the principle of lizi synoptic meteorology, 13 regional rainstorm weather processes occurred in Hunan Province in 2010 were analyzed. [Result] Thirteen rainstorms are all closely related to self-organization convergent airflow, rainstorm is the inevitable result after the outbreak of self-organization convergent airflow. The inoculation area of self-organization convergent airflow is accorded with the occurrence area of rain- storm in the next 12-36 h; once the inoculation area of self-organization convergent airflow disappears, there will be no regional rainstorm in the next 12-36 h; the inoc- ulation area of self-organization convergent airflow is produced in the convergence domain of large scale of southern and northern lizi pair. [Conclusion] The existence of southern and northern lizi pair can be used as the short-term forecast model of regional rainstorm during flood season.%[目的]对2010年湖南汛期13次暴雨过程进行力子天气学分析。[方法]采用力子天气学原理，通过对2010年出现在湖南的13次I爰域性暴雨天气过程进行合成分析。[结果]2010年湖南汛期的13次暴雨都与自组织的辐合水气流密切相关，暴雨是自组织辐合水汽流爆发后所产生的必然结果；自组织辐合水汽流的孕育区对应未来12—36小时出现暴雨的区域；自组织辐合水汽流孕育区一旦消失，则未来12-36小时不会有区域性暴雨出现；自组织辐合水汽流孕育区产生在大尺度南北力子偶的交汇域。[结论]南北力子偶是否存在可以作为汛期区域性暴雨的短期预报模式。