城镇建设用地规模预测研究综述

摘要

通过文献综述法归纳梳理现阶段城镇建设用地规模预测的研究成果,包括建设用地扩张的影响因素、规模预测的模型等,总结现有研究的特点和可能存在的不足之处,以期为我国城镇建设用地规模预测的深入研究提供些许参考.研究发现,针对城镇建设用地规模预测的基础理论研究较为缺乏,关于影响因素的研究缺少理论分析框架;研究侧重于应用单一模型进行小尺度层面预测,基于综合效益考虑的大尺度预测研究较少.因此,应加强建设用地规模预测的基础理论、机理过程方面的探索;加强基于综合效益考虑的大尺度、多层次的预测研究;加强计量分析、空间分析以及信息技术分析等多方法与模型的交叉综合应用.%Research results of prediction of urban construction land scale were summarized from the aspects of influencing factors of construction land expansion and prediction models of construction land scale,and their characteristics and deficiencies of these studies were analyzed to provide reference for deep research on prediction of urban construction land scale in China.The results show that there are few studies on basic theories about total scale of construction land presently,and there is no theoretical framework in studies on influencing factors.A single model has been used to conduct prediction on a small scale in most studies,but there have been few studies on large-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the exploration of basic theory and mechanism of urban construction land prediction,study large-scale prediction based on comprehensive benefit,and strengthen the comprehensive application of econometric analysis,spatial analysis and information technology analysis.