湖南烤烟产量重心变迁及影响因素研究

摘要

运用区域重心法和灰色关联法分析了2006～2015年湖南烤烟产量重心变迁及影响因素.结果表明,湖南烤烟各区域产量变化以波动增长为主.全省、湘东、湘南、湘西烟区烤烟产量重心分别向北偏西、南偏西、西偏南、南偏东方向移动,移动距离排序南北向为湘东烟区＞全省＞湘西烟区＞湘南烟区,东西向为湘东烟区＞湘西烟区＞全省＞湘南烟区.重心坐标经纬度主要影响因素各异.各区域烤烟产量占比主要影响因素大部分为播种面积,少数为单产.提出了打造以湘南烟区为主体,湘西烟区、湘东烟区为两翼的湖南“一主两翼”烤烟生产发展格局的建议.%The variation and influence factors of yield gravity center of flue-cured tobacco in Hunan were studied in 2006-2015 by regional gravity center method and grey correlation analysis.The results showed that the yields of flue-cured tobacco in various areas in Hunan were mainly of the growing with fluctuation type.The yield gravity centers in the whole province and eastem,southern and western Hunan tobacco-growing areas overall moved in the north by west,south by west,west by south,and south by east directions,respectively;and the movements in the southnorth direction were in order of eastern Hunan tobacco-growing area ＞whole province ＞western Hunan tobacco-growing area ＞southern Hunan tobacco-growing area,and the movements in the east-west direction showed an order of eastern Hunan tobacco-growing area＞western Hunan tobacco-growing area＞whole province＞southern Hunan tobacco-growing area.The main influence factors of the coordinates of the longitudes and the latitudes differed.The main influence factor was planting area in most cities or counties in the whole province,and was per unit area yield in a few cities or counties.It is advised to construct the "one main body and two wings" development pattern of flue-cured tobacco production in Hunan with southern Hunan tobacco-growing area as the main body and western and eastern Hunan tobacco-growing areas as the two.wings.