在分析甘肃省粮食产量时空变化的基础上,利用灰色关联分析方法探讨了粮食生产的影响因素,定量分析了粮食产量与影响因素的关联程度,并利用GM(1,1)模型对单产、年末总人口、粮食总产量的变化趋势进行了模拟预测.结果表明:(1)甘肃省粮食产量变化的总体特征为波动中呈上升趋势,各市(自治州)粮食生产变化空间差异性明显;(2) 粮食单产、年末总人口、有效灌溉面积、受灾面积、年末耕地面积和粮食播种面积等是粮食生产的主要驱动因子;(3)模拟预测表明,粮食总产量增长幅度不大,而人口的增长相对较快,因此,在大力发展粮食生产的同时,要适当控制人口数量,促进粮食生产可持续发展 .%Based on temporal and spatial variation analysis of grain yield in Gan su Province in the past, the grey correlation analysis method was employed to ex plore the influential factors of grain yield and analyze quantitatively the degr ee of correlation between grain yield and its influential factors. The GM (1, 1) model was used to simulate and predict the variation trend of yield per unit ar ea, year-end population and total grain yield. The results showed: (1) The grai n yield of Gansu Province was increased in fluctuation, and the spatial distribut ion of annual average increase rate of grain yield had significant difference in each city and autonomous region. (2) The yield per unit area, year-end populat i on, effective irrigated area, disaster-stricken area, cultivated area and grain planting area were the main driving factors of grain production. (3) The increas ing degree of the total grain yield will not be apparent in the future, but the growth of population will get relatively faster. In order to promote sustainable development of grain production, the population should be controlled appropriat ely while grain production should be developed in a sustainable way.
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