利用统计学方法提取了干旱灾害的主要影响因子，进行了天水干旱气候对蜜桃生产影响评估。分析得出：影响天水蜜桃正常生长的主要干旱灾害以早春蜜桃萌芽～芽开放期干旱、花期干旱和蜜桃上年10月中旬高温干旱灾害最为明显；各干旱时段灾害强度发生频率以3月上中旬桃树萌芽～芽开放期轻旱和花期轻旱最多，发生频率分别为23％和31％，对蜜桃产量的影响以开花期大气干旱影响最大，贡献率为40％。影响天水蜜桃生产的干旱灾害综合评估表明，除轻旱、重旱评估准确率略低为83％和80％外，无旱和有旱评估准确率达94％以上，中旱、特重旱评估准确率均达100％，灾害评估效果比较理想。%Located in arid and semi-arid mountainous area in the northwest loess plateau ,Tianshui has a high inci-dence with drought and the development of fruit tree industry was affected .To effectively defend against the drought and reduce fruit losses to the minimal level ,this study focused on the evaluation research on the influence of drought on peach production in Tianshui and this research had obvious instructive significance .Statistical method was carried out to out-lines the main factors of drought to study the influence of drought on peach production in Tianshui .The result showed that drought heavily affected the normal growth of peaches from the germination to opening in early spring ,and at flowering and with high temperature in middle October in previoust year .The frequency of mild drought occurred most when peach began germinating to open and flowering ,reaching 23% and 31% .When peach began flowering heavily ,drought affect-ed the peach production ,contributing up to 40% of the loss .Our results could provide 83% and 80% accuracies in es-timating mild and severe drought ,respectively .The accuracy could reach over 94% for drought or non-drought occur-rences .The accuracies on moderate and the worst drought were up to 100% .In conclusion ,this drought evaluation ap-proach was ideal and had definite reference value in agricultural practices on drought prevention and reduction .
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