基于VAR模型的鄯善绿洲葡萄种植区的时空分布模拟及预测

摘要

Extracted and analysed long phase information from multitemporal remote sensing images based on RS,combined with field investigation and statistical data,the VAR model between the spatial and temporal field investigation,statistics analysis distribution pattern of the grape planting area and crop land in Shanshan were studied,then to simulate and forecast the development trend of the Shanshan oasis grape growing area.The results showed that:The growth speed of grape planting area was relatively quick from 1990 to 2000,the growth rate was as high as 121.18％,but it slowed down from 2000 to 2013,the growth rate was only 20.81％;the grape growing areas showed a trend of less distribution in south and more in north,the southern area in the county accounted for 31.34 ％;the proportion of grape growing area in the field of agricultural crops increased from 17.02％ to 29.52％ from 1990 to 2013,the growing structure of agriculture in Shanshan Oasis is becoming more and more balanced;the VAR model showed that the grape growing area and crop land keep in a relatively stable expansion proportion of area scale from 2014-2023.Shanshan Couty should increase the transformation and upgrading of grape industry in the future,and further improve the core compebitiveness and create a higher green GDP.%借助遥感技术对多时相遥感影像进行信息提取分析,结合野外调查、统计资料等研究新疆鄯善绿洲葡萄种植区的时空分布格局与农作物用地的VAR模型关系,模拟和预测鄯善绿洲葡萄种植区的发展趋势.结果表明:1990-2000年葡萄种植面积增速较快,增长率高达121.18％,2000-2013年增速减缓,增长率仅为20.81％;葡萄种植面积呈现南少北多的现象,其中山南地区在全县占比为31.34％;1990-2013年间葡萄在农作物用地中占比由17.02％增至29.52％,鄯善绿洲农业种植结构日趋平衡;VAR模型显示2014-2023年的葡萄种植面积及农作物用地面积均以较稳定比例扩张,未来鄯善县应加大葡萄产业转型升级,进一步提高核心竞争力,创造更高的绿色GDP.