我国中期和延伸期预报业务现状以及发展趋势

摘要

Medium-range weather forecast is an important part of the weather forecast operation. Because of relatively long forecasting valid time and high reliability, medium-range forecast plays a significant role in the decision-making process of disaster prevention and reduction. This paper reviews the history of medium-range forecast in China, and emphatically introduces the current situation and the main technical means of medium-range forecast in the National Meteorological Center. Based on the comparative analysis of the differences and gaps in the medium-range weather forecast both in China and in developed countries, the development trend is discussed. A brief introduction to the extend-ranged forecast developed by the National Meteorological Center is also given in the paper, its technical means and the development trend are also discussed.%　　中期预报是天气预报业务的重要环节之一，因其预报时效长，预报可靠性也相对较高，中期预报在防灾减灾科学决策中起着重要作用。回顾了我国中期预报的发展历史，着重介绍了目前国家气象中心的中期预报业务现状以及主要技术手段。并通过分析和总结我国中期预报业务和国际先进国家的不同和差距，讨论我国中期预报业务的未来发展趋势。同时，还对国家气象中心开展的延伸期预报业务做简略介绍，讨论其主要技术手段以及未来发展趋势。