台风定强技术及业务应用--以Dvorak技术为例

摘要

The history of operational typhoon intensity estimation based on Dvorak technique is reviewed and the necessity of improving the operational lfow of typhoon intensity estimation in China is analyzed in this paper. Then this paper gives a brief introduction to the basic method and lfow of Dvorak technique (1984 Edition) based on BD enhanced infrared satellite image and recommended by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the effect of its operational tests and application in Central Meteorological Ofifce (CMO) of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) in 2012 and 2013. Finally, the limitation of Dvorak technique and some problems in operational analysis are discussed. The results of the operational tests and application show that Dvorak technique not only improves the accuracy of operational typhoon intensity estimation and the objective technical support capabilities in CMO/CMA, but also enhances the comparability of the operational typhoon intensity estimation data given by CMO/CMA and other international operational typhoon centers. And the comparative veriifcation resutls, based on the CMA typhoon best track data, show that the average accuracy of operational typhoon intensity estimation of CMO increased to 1.3 m/s in 2013 from 1.9 m/s in 2011, increased by nearly 32%;the veriifcation results of the total 511 comparative samples in 2013 indicate that the current typhoon intensity index (CI) given by CMO and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) are almost consistent, and there is an overall difference of ±1.0 between their CI indices.The difference is related to the satellite data (MTSAT or FY2 series) using in Dvorak analysis and the operational analysis experience of the forecasters.%回顾了台风业务定强Dvorak技术的发展历程，分析了我国台风业务定强技术流程改进的必要性，简要介绍了世界气象组织推荐使用的1984年版本的基于BD增强红外云图的Dvorak台风业务定强分析技术流程以及中央气象台在2012—2013年开展的业务试验及应用情况，最后对Dvorak技术本身的局限性及业务分析中存在的问题进行了讨论。业务试验及应用的结果表明：Dvorak技术的应用不仅提高了中央气象台台风业务定强的精度和客观技术支撑能力，而且也增强了我国台风业务定强数据与国际上其他台风业务中心的可比性。与中国气象局台风最佳路径资料对比检验表明，中央气象台台风业务定强平均精度由2011年的1.9m/s优化至2013年的1.3m/s，提高近32%；针对2013年中央气象台和日本气象厅所确定的共511个台风现时强度指数（CI）对比样本的检验结果表明，两者确定的CI指数基本一致，总体相差在±1.0之间，这种差异与两者进行Dvorak技术分析时所使用的卫星资料（MTSAT或FY2系列）不一致有关，同时也与预报员的实际分析经验有关。