基于GRAPES的陆-气双向反馈模式降水在洪水预报中的检验

摘要

To verify the distribution of precipitation by lfood forecast based on hydrological model, the feedback model between land surface and atmosphere based on GRAPES and GRAPES Meteorological-Hydrological coupled Model developed by the author's meteorological model are used. Xin’anjiang model which is used in this paper has already been widely applied in lfood forecasting and hydrological simulation in China for a long term. The result of hydrological model driven by forecast datasets of GRAPES feedback model for lfood forecasting is compared with the result of GRAPES Meteorological-Hydrological coupled Model. The experiment results show that the hydrological model can be used for veriifcation of precipitation prediction. This method can be used in the ungauged region and the region with sparse meteorological stations.%选取前期已构建的基于GRAPES的陆—气双向反馈模式和陆—气单向反馈模式，尝试在洪水预报中利用流域水文模型对数值预报模式降水分布进行检验。流域水文模型选取的是在我国洪水预报中已经得到广泛应用的新安江水文模型。将双向反馈模式的预报降水驱动水文模型，进行洪水预报试验，与单向反馈模式预报结果进行比较。结果表明，双向反馈模式对10cm土壤含水量模拟精度高于原模式，对降水的模拟也略好于原模式，而且利用水文模型对降水分布进行检验的方法可以推广到站点稀疏或无资料地区。