数值天气预报和气候预测的可预报性问题

摘要

考察由初始状态误差和模式中参数误差所引起的预报结果的不确定性.提出了数值天气预报与气候预测中三类可预报性问题,即,最大可预报时间,最大预报误差,初值与参数的最大允许误差.然后将这三类问题化成了对应的非线性优化问题,给出了处理此类非线性优化问题的思路,并且用数值方法对Lorenz模型研究了这三类问题.%The uncertainties caused by the errors of the initial states and the parameters in the numerical modelare investigated. Three problems of predictability in numerical weather and climate prediction are proposed.which are related to the maximum predictable time, the maximum prediction error, and the maximum admissible errors of the initial values and the parameters in the model respectively. The three problems arethen formulated into nonlinear optimization problems. Effective approaches to deal with these nonlinearin dealing with these three problems.