A Quantitative Technique for Short Range Weather Forecasting Using Numerical Weather Prediction Guidance and Digital Satellite Imagery

摘要

A method is outlined to test the concept of 'Focasting', proposed by Vonder Haar, et al. (1979), by comparing forecast cloud fields to existing satellite observed cloud fields to examine the accuracy of the forecast. Forecast cloud fields are derived from a set of multiple linear regression coefficients which can then be used to predict what the cloud field should look like at a given forecast valid time, say at one hour intervals from the LFM base time out to 12 hrs. Then by comparing real-time satellite imagery, as it is received at one hour intervals, to the corresponding estimated satellite product (ESP) that was produced from the regression equations, the forecaster can see how well the forecast cloud field fits the actual satellite imagery. The positioning of the forecast cloud field can then be adjusted, based on the deviation from the observed satellite field. (Author)