宁夏彭阳水质监测断面的水质评价及预测

摘要

基于2011-2015年茹河彭阳水质监测断面的水质数据,采用物元分析法对其断面水质进行评价;建立适用于该监测断面的马尔可夫预测模型对断面水质类别进行预测;同时依据平稳分布对各类水质的重现期作了分析.结果表明:彭阳水质监测断面水质为Ⅲ类;对马尔可夫链预测模型进行验证,满足预测精度;2015年9月和11月的水质类别预测结果均为Ⅲ类,且Ⅲ类水质出现的周期最短,属河流水质常态,其重现期为4.9个月,整体水质较好.%Based on the data of the Pengyang section in the Ruhe River from 2011 to 2015,the water quali ty was evaluated by using matter-element analysis model.Markov prediction model which was suitable for this section was build to forecast water quality,meanwhile the return period of all levels water quality were analyzed according to stationary distribution.The results indicated that the water quality in the Pengyang section was in level Ⅲ.The Markov chain prediction model was verified to meet the demand of prediction accuracy.The water quality in September and November of 2015 was predicted at level Ⅲ.This level Ⅲ water quality was normal and lasted for a short period.Its return period was 4.9 months,and the whole water quality was better.