Tausch's goatgrass (Aegilops tauschii) is a serious weed worldwide. Determination of the potential geographical distribution of Tausch's goatgrass is an important factor for effectively controlling the spreading of this weed. The potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass in China and in the rest of the world were predicted using the MaxEnt model. West Asia, the Middle-east, the Mediterranean coast of south-eastern Europe and northern Africa are the main suitable areas for growth of Tausch's goatgrass. In China the suitable areas are mainly distributed in Henan, Hebei, Shandong, southwest of Shanxi, Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi, the central and south of Ningxia, southeast of Gansu, north of Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces. The global potential distribution area of Tausch's goatgrass is mainly between 30° to 45° degrees north in the latitude of the main winter wheat producing areas. As the global climate changes, the potential distribution range of Tausch's goatgrass will vary according to different emissions scenarios. With greenhouse gases under the Alb emissions scenario, by 2050, the potential distribution of Tausch's goatgrass will have a tendency to expand, while under A2a and B2a emissions scenarios, the low- and medium-risk areas will tend to decrease, but the high-risk areas will not change significantly.%节节麦是麦田恶性杂草,明确节节麦在全球及中国的潜在分布对有效控制其扩散蔓延有重要的指导意义.利用MaxEnt生态位模型对节节麦在全球及中国的潜在分布进行了预测.结果表明,西亚、中东、欧洲东南部和非洲北部地中海沿岸是节节麦在全球的主要适生区；节节麦在我国的适生区主要分布在冬小麦主产区河南、河北、山东、山西西南部、陕西关中平原、宁夏中南部、甘肃东南部、湖北、江苏和安徽北部.节节麦在全球的潜在分布区主要分布于北纬30°～45°的冬小麦主产区.随着全球气候的变化,温室气体在A1b排放情景下,到2050年,节节麦的潜在分布范围将有扩大趋势；A2a和B2a排放情景下,节节麦低风险区和中风险区则有缩减趋势,但高风险区变化不明显.
展开▼
