Electric power generation prediction method based on expected value calculation, electric power generation prediction system based on expected value calculation, and electric power generation prediction program product based on expected value calculation

摘要

Accurately predicting a power generation of a natural energy power generation device that is affected by a peak cut loss. A processor of a computer is caused to execute: an insolation analysis step and a power generation prediction step. The power generation prediction step determines a first insolation that is the insolation required to obtain a first power generation that is zero and the minimum output power, and a second power generation that is the capacity. The power generation prediction step also determines a second insolation that is the insolation in a case where the capacity is satisfied. In a case where the insolation is lower than the first insolation, the power generation prediction step determines the first power generation as the power generation, and in a case where the insolation exceeds the second insolation, the power generation prediction step determines the second power generation as the power generation.