首页> 中文期刊> 《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》 >成蚊监测方法中监测频率与监测周期的准确度分析及优化

成蚊监测方法中监测频率与监测周期的准确度分析及优化

         

摘要

For analyzing and verifying the accuracy of different mosquito monitoring frequencies and monitoring cycles , and developing an optimal mosquito monitoring program, the data obtained by a 224 days continuous monitoring (24 h/d) in 2013 were used as “standard data”, from which systematic -sampling was performed to acquire different “monitoring frequency group”, and then calculate the error rates ( ERs).Meanwhile, different “monitoring cycle models” were established and the population density of adult mosquitoes and the formed ERs were calculated .Then an economic and effective monitoring programme was developed with ERs ≤ 20.0% as the evaluation criteria.As results, the ERs of mosquito population dynamics declined to 19.90% (≤20.0%) when the monitoring frequency increased to 3 times per month, and the average proportion ERs of Cx.pi.pallens and Ae.albopictus declined to 7.01% and 18.10% (≤ 20. 0%) when the monitoring frequency was 2 times per month, therefore, the optimal mosquito monitoring frequency should be 3 times per month.In the same way, the optimal monitoring frequency could be determined to be 2 times per ten-days.As to monitoring cycle, there was no significant difference of mosquito density between period II & III and 24 h monitoring cycle, and the obvious difference in Ae.albopictus population could be corrected by fitting method, therefore II&III period (16: 30-8: 00 the next day) should be determined as an optimal mosquito monitoring cycle.%为验证并分析成蚊不同监测频率及监测周期的准确度,进而确定最优化的监测方案,本文以2013年224天24小时CO2法连续性监测作为“标准数据”,以系统抽样方式从中获取不同“监测频率组合”并计算误差率(ERs),同时比较不同“监测周期组合”计算成蚊种群密度及构成的误差率(ERs),以误差率≤20.0%为评价标准,确定更加经济有效的监测方案。分析显示,月监测频率增加至3次/月时,成蚊消长误差率降至19.90%(≤20.0%);2次/月时,淡色库蚊与白纹伊蚊构成比平均误差率分别降至7.01%与18.10%(≤20.0%),因此最优的月监测频率为3次/月,同样方法,较优的旬监测频率可确定为2次/旬。监测周期方面, II (16:30~20:00)+III (20:00~次日8:00)时段监测周期与24 h监测周期比较,成蚊整体密度未见显著差异(92.97 vs 82.98只/天, Z=-1.480, P=0.139),白纹伊蚊种群尽管差异显著,但可通过拟合进行校正,因此II+III时段(16:30~次日8:00)可作为较优的CO2法成蚊监测周期。

著录项

  • 来源
    《寄生虫与医学昆虫学报》 |2015年第3期|147-156|共10页
  • 作者单位

    上海市黄浦区疾病预防控制中心;

    病媒生物防治科;

    上海200023;

    复旦大学公共卫生学院;

    流行病学教研室;

    上海200032;

    上海市疾病预防控制中心;

    病媒生物防治科;

    上海200336;

    上海市黄浦区疾病预防控制中心;

    病媒生物防治科;

    上海200023;

    上海市疾病预防控制中心;

    病媒生物防治科;

    上海200336;

  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 chi
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

    监测方法; 监测频率; 监测周期; 误差率;

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