不同气候模态下西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源丰度预测模型建立

摘要

Cololabis saira is extremely sensitive to marine environmental factors.Different climate conditions may have different effects on abundance index of Cololabis saira in the Northwest Pacific.We defined the year as cold year or warm year by annual average of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)index.Based on the data of the CPUE (catch per unit effort)and sea surface temperature (SST)data from remote sensing in the feeding grounds and spawning grounds in the Northwest Pacific from 1990 to 2014,the relationship between CPUE and SST is ana-lyzed,and the forecasting model of abundance index is also established by using the linear regression models for the cold and warm index years.The results show that the SST of feeding ground is significantly related to the CPUE in April during cold years(P<0.05),and this phenomenon may be related to the Kuroshio enhancement in April. The SST of feeding ground is also significantly related to the CPUE in November during warm years(P<0.05), and this phenomenon may be related to the reduction of SST in November.It is also found that the forecasting modelsbetween CPUE and SST in the feeding ground during April and November are built,which is significant in statistics(P<0.05).During the PDO cold times(the year of 2012)and PDO warm times(the year of 2014),the relative error between CPUE predicted value and actual value is 14.03% and —16.26%,respectively,which have better fitting effect.The research shows that under different climate condition,the environmental factors used to forecast abundance index of Cololabis saira different.It is concluded that the forecasting model of abundance index can be used for the operation in the Cololabis saira fishery.%秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)资源对海洋环境因素极为敏感,不同气候模态可能对秋刀鱼资源丰度产生不同的影响.根据1990—2014年西北太平洋日本的秋刀鱼渔业中单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE,以此作为资源丰度),以及相应产卵场、索饵场的海表温(SST)遥感数据,探讨太平洋年际震荡(PDO)指数冷、暖年下,秋刀鱼资源丰度CPUE变化与产卵场、索饵场SST的关系,并分别建立资源丰度的预测模型.研究表明,PDO冷年索饵场4月SST与年CPUE显著相关(P<0.05),PDO暖年索饵场11月的SST与年标准化CPUE显著相关(P<0.05).PDO冷、暖年的秋刀鱼资源丰度的预测模型中,CPUE均与索饵场11月的SST、索饵场4月SST呈现正相关的关系,统计学上为显著相关(P<0.05).PDO 冷年(2012年)和PDO 暖年(2014年)的 CPUE预测值与实际值相对误差分别为14.03%、—16.26%,具有较好的拟合效果.研究认为,不同气候模态下,可用于秋刀鱼资源丰度预测的环境因子不同,上述建立资源丰度模型可用于业务化运行.