利用宁夏贺兰山东麓各地1981年以来气象资料,分析了气候变暖对酿酒葡萄生育关键期主要热量资源和冷冻害的影响.结果表明:1981年以来,随着气候变暖,贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄发育期4-9月各地各月平均气温显著上升,1997年前后发生突变,突变后部分年份较常年同期偏高1℃以上,其中放条萌芽期4月平均气温上升显著,但月内波动幅度增大,酿酒葡萄遭受霜冻或强降温危害的风险增加;7-8月浆果生长和成熟期低温事件发生的可能性仍然较大;气候变暖使活动积温显著增加,中晚熟品种积温保证率达100％,4-9月3300℃(成熟度高,葡萄酒质量好的临界积温)的积温保证率明显提高;无霜期延长,晚熟品种的保证率提高,部分年份活动积温和无霜期满足极晚熟品需求;大部分地区冬季低温冻害相关要素变化趋势都不显著,其中出现持续低于-17℃(冬季受冻临界气温)日数减少,极端最低气温升高,但仍然低于-17℃,惠农、贺兰、平罗、银川20 cm深度-4℃以下日数减少;春季适宜放条期后出现霜冻的年份和日数增多,霜冻过程的最低气温明显降低,出现伴随霜冻的中等及以上强度冷空气频率和次数增加,强度增强.气候变暖对宁夏贺兰山东麓酿酒葡萄生产有利有弊,不同品种酿酒葡萄对气候的适用性不同,因此在酿酒葡萄生育各关键期,仍需加强极端天气气候事件和气象灾害的监测和防范工作,减轻或避免气候条件变化对酿酒葡萄产业发展的不利影响.%Using meteorological data collected from the east foot of the Helan Mountains of Ningxia since 1981,we analyzed the impact of climate warming on heat resources and freezing injuries in wine grapes.The results show that the average temperatures from April to September increased significantly during this period,with an abrupt climate warming trend beginning around 1997.Temperature anomalies were higher than 1℃ in some years after 1997.The trend of average temperatures in April,when wine grapes are in their bud germinating stage,increased rapidly,but there were also greater fluctuations,and the risk of frost or of strong cooling periods also increased.Low-temperature injury events were more likely to appear between July and August,which is the period during which wine grape berries grow and mature.With the active accumulated temperature above 10℃ increased significantly,the probability of mid-or late-maturation was 100％,and the probability of temperatures of 3300℃ (the critical value of high maturity and quality) between April and September improved.With the frost-free period was prolonged the probability of late-maturation increased;the accumulated temperatures and frost-free periods could result in extreme late-maturation trends in many years.The factors affecting low temperature freezing-disasters in winter had no distinct trend.As the number of sustained days at which the minimum temperature dropped below-17℃ (the freezing-disaster critical temperature) decreased,the extreme minimum temperature was raised,although it was still below-17℃,and the days at which the minimum temperature was lower than-4℃ at a depth of 20 cm decreased in Huinong,Helan,Pingluo,and Yinchuan.The frequency of frost appearing after the appropriate time in spring was also reduced,but the number of days with frost increased.Although the minimum temperature decreased,Both the years and days with frost appearing after the appropriate time in spring increased.Climate warming has both advantages and disadvantages for wine grapes,and different cultivars adapt to these effects differently.Thus,there is still a need to increase monitoring of temperature and to prevent extreme climate events and meteorological disasters during the key periods of wine grape development in order to reduce or avoid the negative effects of climate change on wine grapes.
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