基于共有分量分解的速射火炮毁伤概率计算模型

摘要

For rapid-fire guns, the stationary normal shooting error sequence was decomposed as common and uncommon components; furthermore, the common component was decomposed as prediction value and prediction error. Based on the above decomposition, the expression of mean damage probability was proposed for the shooting process in certain initial values with strong and weak correlation errors; then the expression of damage probability of the weapon systems was given for uncertain initial values. Compared to the current damage probability calculation models including those listed in the national military standards, the model given is more accurate.%对速射火炮,将平稳正态的射击误差序列分解为共有分量和非共有分量,将共有分量进一步分解为预测值和预测误差;基于上述分解,给出了确定的强相关误差和弱相关误差初值下射击过程的平均毁伤概率表达式;在上述初值未确定时,给出了武器系统毁伤概率的表达式;与包括国军标在内的现行毁伤概率计算模型相比,文中给出模型更准确.