国际大豆价格波动及其影响因素分析

摘要

The paper analyzed the trend of international soybean price fluctuation according to the FAO's statistical data between 1980 - 2009, and made an empirical analysis of factors influencing international soybean price fluctuation by building a cointegration model. The result showed that the international soybean price would decrease by 2.17 percentage points if the soybean export amount increased by one percentage point in the world; but the international soybean price would increase by 4. 71 percentage points if the world GDP per capita increased by one percentage point.%根据1980-2009年联合国粮农组织的统计数据,分析了国际大豆价格的波动趋势,并构建协整模型对国际大豆价格波动的影响因素进行了实证分析.结果表明；世界大豆出口量每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则下降2.17个百分点；世界人均实际GDP每增加1个百分点,国际大豆价格则上升4.71个百分点.