搜集整理江西省49种地方志中有关气象灾害的记录，制定了旱涝等级判断标准；采用模糊分类法，评判每条记录所反映的旱涝等级，构建了鄱阳湖流域在公元48～1950年的旱涝灾害代用资料序列；将洪涝、干旱灾害各分为重度、中度、轻度3个等级，对旱涝等级序列进行了初步研究。结果表明：鄱阳湖流域洪涝发生频率高于干旱，约“三年一涝、四年一旱”；在旱、涝资料序列中均以中度等级频率最高，其次是重度等级，以轻度等级频率最低，且旱涝序列均呈偏态分布的特征；赣江下游在不同时期均为洪涝发生频率最高的区域，环鄱阳湖区则为干旱灾害频率最高的区域。%This research collected and sorted the meteorological disasters records within 49 kinds of local chronicles of Jiangxi province , and formulated the standards for judging the grade of drought and flood disasters .By using fuzzy classification method to judge the grade of drought and flood reflected by each record , we built the proxy data sequences of drought and flood disasters in the Poyang Lake basin from the year 48 to 1950.Drought and flood disasters were classified into severe , moderate and light levels , and the sequences of drought and flood grade were studied .The results showed that:(1) flood occurred more frequently than drought , and flood happened once every three years while drought happened once every four years ;( 2) the moderate drought and flood oc-curred most frequently , followed by severe level , and light level was the last .The sequences of drought and flood showed the charac-teristic of skew distribution;(3) flood occurred most frequently in the lower reaches of the Gan River at different times , while drought occurred most frequently in the region around the Poyang Lake .
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