基于 PCA和 MLR的云南省耕地抛荒影响因素研究

摘要

The phenomenon of arable land wasting is increasing in many rural areas of Yunnan province in recent years.In or-der to analyze the causes of the problem and find out practicable solvents, based on the arable land resources data and social statisti-cal data of Yunnan province from 1993 to 2012, firstly the author used the method of principal component analysis (PCA) to prelim-inarily determine the driving factors of arable land wasting,and then applied the method of multiple linear regression ( MLR) to build a multiple linear regressive model describing the relationship between arable land wasting and various driving factors, finally determined the dominant driving factor of arable land wasting.The results showed that effective irrigation area was the dominant driv-ing factor of arable land wasting in Yunnan.Moreover, fertilizer input, urbanization level and proportion of the first industrial em-ployed personnel also had certain effects on arable land wasting.Therefore, strengthening the construction of farmland water conser-vancy infrastructure was the most important work in the cultivated land use of Yunnan in the future.Meanwhile, in order to effective-ly solve arable land wasting problem, and continually enhance arable land use rate and output rate, we should accelerate the imple-mentation of ecological fertile soil engineering, reduce the occupation of arable land by non-agricultural construction, and guide the reasonable transfer of rural surplus labors.%近年来云南省许多地方耕地撂荒现象不断增多，为分析产生问题的原因进而找出解决问题的办法，基于近20年（1993～2012年）的耕地资源和社会统计数据，先运用主成分分析（PCA ）方法初步确定耕地抛荒的驱动因素，再运用多元线性回归分析方法（ MLR）建立耕地抛荒现象与各驱动因素之间的多元线性回归模型，最终确定耕地抛荒的主导驱动因素。结果表明，影响云南省耕地抛荒的主导因素是有效灌溉面积，此外，化肥施用量、城市化水平、第一产业就业人员比例也在一定程度上对其产生影响，故在今后耕地利用过程中，云南省应以加强农田水利基础设施建设为主，同时注重加快实施生态沃土工程、减少非农建设占用耕地、引导农村富余劳动力合理转移，才能有效解决耕地抛荒问题，不断提高耕地利用率与产出率。