1976~2015年邯郸市潜在蒸散变化特征与影响因子分析

摘要

为了揭示复杂自然地理条件下邯郸市潜在蒸散变化的特征,利用1976~2015年邯郸市16个观测站逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith模型计算各气象台站的逐日潜在蒸散量,利用线性趋势、相关系数、多项式拟合和Mann-Kendall等方法,分析了邯郸市潜在蒸散变化特征,并运用偏相关分析法,探讨了影响潜在蒸散的主要气象要素.结果表明:邯郸市潜在蒸散呈北多南少分布;夏季潜在蒸散最多,其次为春季,冬季最少.近40年来,邯郸市16个站点中除武安站外,潜在蒸散均呈减少趋势,尤以东部平原地区突出,减少趋势基本维持在30 mm/10 年;西部山区减少趋势相对较弱.区域平均潜在蒸散在21世纪10年代初期有所增加,并维持在平均水平.年潜在蒸散突变年份为1985年,夏秋季潜在蒸散突变年份为1992年.影响年和夏秋季潜在蒸散的主要气象因子为日照时数,影响春冬季潜在蒸散的气象因子在西部山区主要为风速,东部平原则主要为相对湿度.%Based on the daily meteorological data of 16 meteorological stations in Handan from 1976 to 2015,the daily potential evapotranspiration was calculated by Penman-Monteith model.The linear trend,correlation coefficient,polynomical fitting,and Mann-Kendall test were used to analyze the variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration in Handan under natural geographical conditions,and the main meteorological factors affecting the potential evapotranspiration were also explored through partial correlation analysis.The results indicated that the potential evapotranspiration decreased from the north to the south of Handan.Summer had the highest potential evapotranspiration,followed by spring,and winter had the lowest one.In the past 40 years in 15 stations of Handan (except Wu'an),the potential evapotranspiration all showed a decreasing trend,especially in the eastern plain region (decrease at the rate of 30 mm/10 a).The regional mean potential evapotranspiration increased slightly in the early 2010s,and kept at the average level.The abrupt change in annual potential evapotranspiration in Handan occurred in 1985,and that in summer and autumn potential evapotranspiration occurred in 1992.The main meteorological factor affecting annual,summer and autumn potential evapotranspiration was sunshine duration,and that affecting the potential evapotranspiration in spring and winter was wind speed in western mountainous region and relative humidity in eastern plain region.