中国“南海行为准则”谈判进程中面临的障碍及对策--基于国际机制变迁视角的分析

摘要

从历史的脉络推断，南海问题演变的最终归宿必然是制定“南海行为准则”。中国需要积极参与并主导准则制定的进程，才能最大限度地维护自身在南海的权益。根据国际机制变迁的不同模式分析，中国在“南海行为准则”谈判进程中面临内外三重障碍。为突破这些障碍，中国必须在处理好中美关系的同时，“内外兼修”，保持相对独立性，并遏制“南海行为准则”谈判东盟化。%From a historical context,it can be deduced that the destination of the South China Sea issue would be to formulate the “South China Sea Code of Conduct”.In the process,China needs to actively participate in and dominate the negotiation in order to safeguard its rights and interests in this area.Analysis of the different patterns of international mechanism change reveals triple obstacles facing China.To break through these barriers,we should actively strengthen the communication and trust with the US to optimize the environment of negotiations.Then,we should accelerate economic transformation to keep domestic econo-my relative independence to reduce the vulnerability and dependence on ASEAN countries.In addition,China should use the differences of attitude to the south China sea issue between the ASEAN countries to prevent ASEAN fromdominating the negotia-tions of the code.