Cumulant-based correlated probabilistic load flowconsidering photovoltaic generation and electric vehiclecharging demand

摘要

This paper applies a cumulant-based analyticalmethod for probabilistic load flow （PLF） assessment intransmission and distribution systems. The uncertaintiespertaining to photovoltaic generations and aggregate busload powers are probabilistically modeled in the case oftransmission systems. In the case of distribution systems,the uncertainties pertaining to plug-in hybrid electricvehicle and battery electric vehicle charging demands inresidential community as well as charging stations areprobabilistically modeled. The probability distributions ofthe result variables （bus voltages and branch power flows）pertaining to these inputs are accurately established. Themultiple input correlation cases are incorporated. Simulta-neously, the performance of the proposed method isdemonstrated on a modified Ward-Hale 6-bus system andan IEEE 14-bus transmission system as well as on amodified IEEE 69-bus radial and an IEEE 33-bus meshdistribution system. The results of the proposed method arecompared with that of Monte-Carlo simulation.