What killed Yugoslavia? Social determinants of political collapse

摘要

This dissertation develops an empirically based analysis of the role of culture and key political institutions in the popular support for ultra-nationalists in the process of the Yugoslav disintegration and its aftermath. The dissertation responds to three key substantive questions. First, is there any validity in the often-repeated claims about the importance of "ancient hatreds" or "clash of civilizations" in the Yugoslav collapse? Second, did the erstwhile Yugoslav federalism contain or deepen ethnic tensions and conflicts? Third, does the enduring strong popular support for ultra-nationalists in some ex-Yugoslav republics mean that ethnicity has "trumped" class?;To answer these questions, I have used a variety of recent quantitative data (election results data sets, census results, and survey data sets) as well as historical evidence (internal policy documents, secret diplomatic correspondence, and diaries of officials). On the basis of the statistical and comparative historical analysis, my dissertation arrives at several important findings. First, Yugoslavia was neither undermined by "ancient hatreds" nor torn apart by "the clash of civilizations." Instead, the political elites exploited a tradition of intolerance (especially negative visions of the Other) formed in the pre-communist period. Second, the poorly designed federalist institutions in Yugoslavia (and other Communist federations) unintentionally undermined political unity and strengthened the nationalism they were supposed to contain. Finally, the rise of the far right did not happen because "ethnicity trumps class." Rather, the appeal of class-specific welfare chauvinism---the demand that only the ethnic majority receives social protection---enabled ultra-nationalists to mobilize economically vulnerable sections of the majority population.