An alternative model of transition in the Middle East: Bounded consociationalism.

摘要

This study investigates the complex processes of political change taking place in Jordan, Kuwait and Iraq. The primary task is to explain the dynamics of the transition toward democratization by analyzing how political actors pursue their preferences in a milieu of autocratic constraints. Thus, unlike macro-level theories of democratization, this study employs micro-level analysis to capture the underlying dynamics of political change. In seeking to explain recent political developments in the Arab context, this study utilizes a combination of Lijphart's consociational theory, Ibn Khaldun's political sociology and rational choice theory that provides the essential linkage between the two foregoing constructs. In contrast to studies that apply purely Western concepts to the investigation of political processes in non-Western polities, the present study proceeds from the socio-political foundations of Arab societies and the indigenous cultural forces that need to be taken into account in order to correct a distorted view of reality imposed by culturally biased theories. Given the segmented reality of the Arab social fabric and the consensual and non-adversarial traditions of decision-making in authoritarian contexts, this study utilizes a consociational approach modified to include a central role for an "umpire regime" that would preside over the bargaining process with the constituent subgroups. The use of modified consociationalism, along with thickened rational choice theory that incorporates culture in terms of subgroup identities and solidarities (asabiya), resulted in the identification of: (1) rules governing the onset of liberalization and deliberalization; (2) rules governing the rise and decline of subgroup solidarities; (3) rules of cooperation among the subgroups; (4) cultural prerequisites of subgroup participation in power-sharing, i.e. group consensus, social peace, harmony and tolerance.;A final determination concerned the conditions to be satisfied for successful exit from the "trap" of transition: (a) long-term cooperation among the subgroups; (b) growth of cross-cutting ties and interests among the subgroups; (c) commitment to gradual change based on cultural traditions. The good "fit" between the modified consociational model and the political process in the three case studies, demonstrated the feasibility of an alternative explanatory approach to Arab politics that uncovers the laws of political change.