Cultural Change and Generational Polarization in European Voting Behavior

摘要

Recent national elections and referenda in Western Europe have revealed increasingly glaring divergences in vote choice between age cohorts. This paper theorizes that differences between generations in cultural politics may constitute an explanation for such polarization. Analyses of European Social Survey data from 2002 and 2014 reveal that there are indeed substantial generational differences in political attitudes on these issues, although it is unclear whether these differences are growing over time. Surprisingly, however, I do not find that divergent cultural politics generally lead generations to vote for different party families. I find one major exception; the youngest generation was increasingly likely to vote for Green parties over time, even controlling for an array of socioeconomic and demographic factors.