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Equity investor sentiment and bond market reaction: Test of overinvestment and capital flow hypotheses.

机译:股权投资者情绪和债券市场反应:过度投资和资本流动假设的检验。

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摘要

This paper examines the effect of equity investor sentiment on the bond market. While empirical evidence suggests that high investor sentiment leads to equity overvaluation, there is limited evidence of its effect on the bond market. Sentiment can have a negative impact on bond returns via two channels. First, in times of high investor sentiment, overvalued equity can lead to firm overinvestment, resulting in a negative impact on bond pricing due to an increase in default risk. Second, overvalued equity attracts capital flow to the equity market from the bond market which can create a downward pressure on bond pricing. Consistent with these channels, I find that equity investor sentiment exhibits a significant negative relation with contemporaneous bond returns; this effect is stronger for the sample of firms with overinvestment. In distinguishing the effects of the two channels, I find a positive relation between sentiment and subsequent bond returns, consistent with a return reversal predicted by the capital flow channel (due to the backflow of capital); however, there is no return reversal observed for the overinvestment sample, indicating that overinvestment has a more lasting impact. Additionally, I find a negative (but delayed) impact of equity investor sentiment on bond ratings for the overinvestment sample consistent with an increase in default risk of these firms. Overall, my study highlights that behavioral biases in the equity market do not automatically get transmitted to the bond market. In fact, the bond market reacts negatively to sentiment-induced overinvestment in a rational way, consistent with bond investors' payoff functions.
机译:本文研究了股权投资者情绪对债券市场的影响。尽管经验证据表明投资者情绪高涨会导致股票高估,但很少有证据显示其对债券市场的影响。情绪可能通过两个渠道对债券收益产生负面影响。首先,在投资者情绪高涨的时期,高估的股权可能导致公司的过度投资,由于违约风险的增加,对债券定价产生负面影响。其次,高估的股票吸引了债券市场的资金流向股票市场,这可能对债券定价产生下行压力。与这些渠道一致,我发现股票投资者的情绪与同期债券收益表现出显着的负相关关系。对于过度投资的公司来说,这种影响更强。在区分这两种渠道的影响时,我发现情绪与随后的债券收益之间存在正相关关系,这与资本流动渠道所预测的收益反转(由于资本回流)一致。但是,对于过度投资样本,没有观察到收益反转,这表明过度投资具有更持久的影响。此外,对于过度投资样本,我发现股票投资者情绪对债券评级的负面影响(但有延迟),与这些公司违约风险的增加一致。总体而言,我的研究强调,股票市场的行为偏见不会自动传播到债券市场。实际上,债券市场以理性的方式对情绪诱导的过度投资做出了消极反应,这与债券投资者的回报功能一致。

著录项

  • 作者

    Chen, Wen.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Minnesota.;

  • 授予单位 University of Minnesota.;
  • 学科 Accounting.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2015
  • 页码 76 p.
  • 总页数 76
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:53:03

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