THE STRUCTURAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CAUSES OF RURAL-TO-URBAN MIGRATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS (LABOUR, MARKETS).

摘要

Excessive rural-urban migration is a serious issue faced by a majority of the less developed countries (LDCs). The unchecked flow of rural workers to the cities of many LDCs has resulted in residual underemployment and unemployment in urban areas, rural depopulation leading to slowdowns to agricultural output, and finally, inefficient utilization of the total labor force.;The traditional vertical solidarity networks, based on kinship, caste, ethnicity and patron-client relationships have regulated production relations and guaranteed a minimum livelihood for all of the inhabitants of rural areas of LDCs for many centuries. It is the migration of this group of rural workers due to processes considered in this dissertation that accounts for a high rate of rural-urban mobility during the earlier years of economic development. However, due to changes in the type and nature of the processes involved, rural-urban migration becomes a self-sustained process, stimulated by many endogenous and exogeneous variables during the later years of development.;The net rate of rural-urban migration has been regressed against the rates of growth of several macroeconomic variables which represent different processes and structural changes for two groups of LDCs. R-U migration in countries referred to as group A, which are relatively more advanced, was found to be more responsive to changes in the composition of aggregate demand and other endogenous factors such as the unemployment rate and rents. On the other hand, the rate of R-U migration in group B countries (relatively backward LDCs) showed a high degree of correlation with variables mostly influenced by government policies.;The general conclusion is that the excessive rural-urban migration in LDCs will be reduced only if we modify most of the processes that lead to this problem. It is argued that the governments of LDCs should be more careful regarding manufacturing projects, land reform programs, educational and training facilities, and finally the mechanization of agriculture in their countries. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.);The model presented in this dissertation emphasizes the institutional and structural changes that lead to a continuous relocation of rural populations in developing countries. The model takes into account the potential dynamics that link migration rates to growth performance, rural-urban migration to shifts in the derived demand for labor, and the interaction between rural and urban labor markets and the forces behind supply and demand in these markets.