Social security at the crossroads: Public opinion and public policy.

摘要

This dissertation analyzes public opinion data concerning the social security program as a case study in the relationship between public opinion and public policy. Publicly available opinion polls dating from 1935 through 1989 are analyzed to evaluate the hypothesis that the relationship between public opinion and public policy is directly related to the "structure" of opinion on that issue.;Data analysis indicates that the public has consistently and strongly supported the social security system and its growth and expansion. Support for the program is demonstrated through the public's willingness to finance the program and opposition to proposals to either make the program voluntary or reduce taxes if a benefit reduction would be necessary. In spite of this support, the public has recently shown less willingness to increase taxes in order to finance the program and an increased willingness to decrease benefits. Finally, the public has also shown some willingness to evaluate political candidates on the basis of their views on social security and to take actions to make their views on social security known to elected officials.;This analysis of public opinion and public policy concerning social security confirms the view that relationship between policy and public opinion is affected by the structure of that opinion and leads us to the conclusion that the program will continue to exist in the future and be a major source of retirement income. However, increasing levels of pension income will result in decreased reliance in the future of social security. This could allow the slowly worsening financial projections of the systems's solvency to be addressed, in part, through a reduction in the general level of benefits provided under the system.;The key structural elements of public opinion which are analyzed are its distribution, intensity, stability and salience. These attributes are seen as affecting the extent to which public opinion gives "consistent cues" to legislators who are presumed to have an incentive to consider public opinion in their decision making process.