Predicting engineering technology student success using statistical success probabilities and multivalued-logic success possibilities.

摘要

Purpose of the study. The major purpose of this study was to determine if success possibilities for Engineering Technology Program (ETP) students could be predicted using a multivalued or fuzzy-logic system of analysis. This determination was made by comparing the results of a standard statistical study of the success probabilities with the fuzzy-logic success possibilities.;Procedure. The sample was comprised of 53 second-year students and graduates of the ETP of the Dallas County Community College District. A questionnaire was utilized as the means for data acquisition. Analysis of Variance was used to test the major prediction and five hypotheses. The.05 level of significance was used as the point of rejection.;Findings. Five research hypotheses were investigated in this study. Each hypothesis was tested using ANOVA to determine if there was a statistically significant difference in the variables tested. The findings are indicated as follows: (1) There were no significant differences, using standard statistical analysis, in the prediction of ETP student GPAs from college entrance exam, CEE, or high school GPA scores when compared to the actual GPAs of graduates. (2) There were no significant differences, using fuzzy-logic analysis, in the prediction of ETP student GPAs from CEE or high school GPA scores when compared to the actual GPAs of graduates. (3) There were no significant differences, using either multivalued-logic analysis or standard statistical analysis, in the prediction of ETP student GPAs from a weighted value of ethnicity, age, and employment (EAE) record when compared to the actual GPAs of graduates.;Conclusions. The study resulted in the following conclusions, which could be applied to the study of other groups with respondents similar to those who participated in this study: (1) ETP student success was predicted from CEE scores or high school GPAs using either standard statistical probability analysis or multivalued-logic possibility analysis. (2) ETP student success was predicted from a weighted value for EAE record using either standard statistical probability analysis or fuzzy-logic possibility analysis. (3) Fuzzy-logic possibility analysis should be investigated more fully as a means of including motivational factors and inferential effects in educational research.