Worldwide production and consumption of petroleum liquids.

摘要

In this study I undertook the risky task of predicting the world's future production and consumption of petroleum liquids (crude oil and natural gas liquids) to the year 2050 using the Hubbert model. This model has advantages of simplicity and availability of data. Although this approach has several known inadequacies, it has withstood the test of time in numerous cases and I consider it a fairly reliable production forecasting tool.;This study reviews historical crude oil production for 67 countries which supply virtually all of the world's crude oil. I used historical production data with a non-linear, least squares, curve-fitting method to determine the parameters of Hubbert's model. It also presents a new approach to analyze production or consumption trends using type curve of the Hubbert model. This type curve analysis is very simple and quick, and only requires graph papers and a calculator to analyze any production or consumption trend.;I classified all the production trends into three categories (Good, Fair and Poor). The classifications are based on the dimensionless minimum root mean squares which are log-normally distributed. My analysis indicated that political, economic, and/or exploration policies are the main causes to some of the fair and poor fits.;My analysis indicated that world's ultimate oil recovery will be about 1.76 trillion barrels and about one trillion barrels remain to be produced at the end of 1995. OPEC has remaining reserves of 709 billion barrels which is 71% of world reserves.;I also used the Hubbert model to forecast consumption. I found no precedence for this use and currently regard its accuracy as speculative. Nevertheless there are some signs that it, too, may develop use over time as a reasonable predictor.;My study showed that the world production (and consumption) of petroleum liquids is currently at a peak and will soon decline. The regional analysis showed that some regions such as the Middle East will produce a surplus of crude throughout the forecast period. Other regions, most notably the Far East and North America, will remain importers. Still other regions, such as Africa, now exporting, will soon become importers.