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Bootstrap and inference for some linear time series models.

机译:一些线性时间序列模型的自举和推断。

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摘要

In this dissertation, three papers are presented which cover topics such as comparing two different bootstrap approximations of the sampling distribution of an M-estimator for an ARMA model, use of the moving block bootstrap with a linear time series process with heavy tailed innovations, and comparing an estimate of the index variation as applied to the original data of an AR(p) model as well as to the estimated innovations of the AR(p) model. Chapter 1 introduces the reader to the various topics involved as well as to needed terminology and to previous literature on the subject matter. Chapters 2, 3, and 4 cover the various topics of interest and Chapter 5 summarizes the results in all three middle chapters and presents possible future research topics. The following paragraphs give a quick overview of the material in Chapters 2, 3, and 4.; Kreiss and Franke (1992) proposed bootstrapping a linear approximation to the M-estimator in ARMA models. In Chapter 2, it is argued that it may be better to apply the bootstrap principle directly to the M-estimator itself. A number of simulation results are presented to compare the two procedures for estimating the sampling distribution of an M-estimator. The theoretical asymptotic validity of the standard bootstrap applied to the M-estimator is established.; In Chapter 3 we study the moving block bootstrap approximation to the sampling distribution of a least squares estimator of the index of regular variation in a linear process with innovations satisfying a standard tail regularity condition. Sufficient conditions are obtained for the asymptotic validity of the procedure. A number of simulation studies are included to examine its finite sample behavior.; From Chapter 3 it is known that a linear process with innovations satisfying a standard tail regularity condition inherits a similar distribution as the innovations themselves with the same index parameter. Hence, in Chapter 4 the variability and stability of the least squares estimator of the index parameter as proposed by Datta and McCormick (1997) is compared when applied to an AR(p) model with innovations satisfying a standard tail regularity condition and to the estimated innovations of the AR(p) model. Consistency of the least squares estimator applied to the estimated innovations is established. Also, simulation results are presented which show empirically that the latter estimator has less variability and is more stable than the least squares estimator applied to the linear process itself.
机译:在这篇论文中,提出了三篇论文,涉及比较ARMA模型的M估计量的抽样分布的两种不同的Bootstrap近似值,将运动块Bootstrap与线性时间序列过程结合使用以及大量拖尾的创新,以及比较适用于AR(p)模型的原始数据以及AR(p)模型的估算创新的指标变化的估算。第1章向读者介绍了所涉及的各种主题,所需的术语以及有关该主题的先前文献。第2、3和4章涵盖了各个有趣的主题,第5章总结了所有三个中间章节的结果,并提出了可能的未来研究主题。以下各段快速概述了第2、3和4章中的内容。 Kreiss和Franke(1992)提出了对ARMA模型中M估计量的线性近似的自举。在第二章中,有人认为最好将自举原理直接应用于M估计器本身。给出了许多仿真结果,以比较两种估计M估计量采样分布的过程。建立了应用于M估计量的标准自举的理论渐近有效性。在第3章中,我们研究了线性过程中满足标准尾部规则性条件的创新的运动块自举近似到规则变化指数的最小二乘估计量的采样分布。获得了该过程的渐近有效性的充分条件。包括大量仿真研究,以检查其有限样本行为。从第3章可以知道,具有满足标准尾部规则性条件的创新的线性过程会继承与具有相同索引参数的创新本身相似的分布。因此,在第4章中,比较了Datta和McCormick(1997)提出的指标参数的最小二乘估计量的变异性和稳定性,该指数参数的最小二乘估计量应用于具有标准尾部规则性条件的创新的AR(p)模型时,并与AR(p)模型的创新。建立了应用于估计创新的最小二乘估计的一致性。此外,还提供了仿真结果,该仿真结果凭经验表明,与应用于线性过程本身的最小二乘估计量相比,后一个估计量具有较小的可变性,并且更稳定。

著录项

  • 作者

    Allen, Michael Raymond.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Georgia.;

  • 授予单位 University of Georgia.;
  • 学科 Statistics.; Biology Genetics.; Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1997
  • 页码 110 p.
  • 总页数 110
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;遗传学;经济学;
  • 关键词

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