Great expectations: Domestic expectations, conflict outcomes, and the duration of leadership tenure.

摘要

This dissertation seeks to provide and test an explanation of the link between leadership turnover and international conflict. A simple formal model is analyzed and empirical tests are conducted that suggest that the ex-ante expectations that populations hold about how a conflict is likely to turn out affect how populations judge success or failure in international conflict. This, in turn, affects both how leadership tenure is shaped by international conflict and how leaders decide which conflicts to get involved in.