Export -led growth in East Asia: A profits perspective

摘要

For many years the economics profession pondered over the causes of the development success of East Asia, without much clarity, credibility or conviction. Whilst economists played theoretical catch-up, along came the Asian crisis. Such a quick-fire calamity caused economists to re-think their position on the East Asian miracle, some downgrading it to a mirage and others to just rapid accumulation in fortuitous circumstances. Explanations of the crisis are far more plausible, from a theoretical perspective, than those of the growth miracle. A by-product of the crisis has been a greater illumination of the driving forces of economic growth than ever before, as economists have ventured away from the traditional long-term real factors of growth and toward financial, short term factors.;This dissertation postulates that the driving forces of economic growth for East Asia were not common with those of the OECD, whereas the driving forces of East Asia's ascent were common with those of East Asia's demise. A Western Shuttle Model is developed to explain how wide price and profit differentials between East Asia and the OECD generated super-export growth which in turn propelled super-economic growth. A exogenous demand-side force helped lift East Asia out of poverty and into relative prosperity via large profits from exports to rich, mature economy markets. International competitiveness, profits and high financial leverage were major catalysts of the boom and their deterioration, to a large extent triggered the financial bust in East Asia in 1997. In short, the causes of East Asia's ascent were the same causes of its demise.