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Essays on business cycles with liquidity constraints and firm entry-exit dynamics under incomplete information.

机译:不完整信息下具有流动性约束和企业进出动态的商业周期论文。

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摘要

This dissertation addresses two distinct issues. The first paper studies business cycles with asset fire sales under limited commitment in financial markets. Paper 2 and 3 study firm entry and exit dynamics in a global game with incomplete information. The second paper derives analytical solutions when firms' productivity is uniformly distributed. The third paper extends the analysis to span more general distributions and solves the problem numerically.;The first paper develops a stochastic over-lapping generations' model to study the intertemporal and intergenerational transmission of productivity shocks. Productivity shocks cause fire sales of capital, which in turn affects the income of future generations. From a constrained-efficiency perspective, competitive equilibria can be inefficient as agents' choices in equilibrium exhibit ex-ante over-borrowing. The inefficiency arises because entrepreneurs cannot get fully financed from outside funds due to limited commitment in financial markets. The fact that the capital prices are determined in competitive markets also contributes to the above inefficiency because agents fail to internalize potential ex-post fire sales. A capital requirement policy can reduce fire sales when adverse productivity shocks occur, and can thus increase the income for all future generations. On the other hand, a lower capital stock even when good productivity shocks occur decreases income for all future generations. Overall, this paper shows that in the long run, a capital requirement policy can (strictly) increase welfare of agents.;The second paper develops a static general equilibrium model to study firms' entry and exit decision in a global game with incomplete information. Firms' choices are strategic substitutes. This paper analytically proves the existence and uniqueness of a monotonic pure strategy equilibrium when the mean productivity and the productivity conditional on the mean are both drawn from uniform distributions. Using numerical examples, it is shown that when the precision of public information increases, the equilibrium switching productivity level increases and, as a result, the aggregate industry productivity increases. By reallocating resources to more productive firms, an increase in the precision of public information leads to a higher welfare.;The third paper extends the problem studied in the second paper to examine whether and how the shapes of productivity distributions affect the existence of the monotonic pure strategy equilibria. The mean productivity is now drawn from a truncated normal distribution and individual firm's productivity conditional on the mean is drawn from more general (truncated) distributions, such as truncated normal, truncated gamma, and truncated exponential distributions. With numerical examples, it is shown that a unique monotonic pure strategy equilibrium continues to exist when firms' productivity is drawn from non-uniform distributions. As in paper 2, both the aggregate productivity and the welfare per worker increase with the increase in the precision of public information. However, unlike in paper 2, the impact of an increase in the precision of private information on aggregate productivity and the welfare depends on the shape of the distribution. In particular, this impact is uncertain when the productivity conditional on the mean is drawn from truncated gamma distribution, which is skewed.
机译:本文针对两个不同的问题。第一篇论文研究了金融市场中有限承诺下的资产大卖出的商业周期。论文2和3研究了信息不完整的全球博弈中公司的进入和退出动态。第二篇论文推导了企业生产率均匀分布时的解析解。第三篇论文将分析扩展到更广泛的分布范围,并在数值上解决了该问题。第一篇论文建立了一个随机的重叠世代模型来研究生产力冲击的时空和代际传递。生产力冲击会导致资本的火热销售,进而影响子孙后代的收入。从约束效率的角度来看,竞争均衡可能效率不高,因为代理人在均衡中的选择表现出事前的过度借贷。效率低下之所以出现,是因为由于对金融市场的承诺有限,企业家无法从外部资金获得充分的资金。资本价格由竞争市场决定的事实也导致上述效率低下,因为代理商无法将潜在的售后火灾内部化。资本需求政策可以在发生不利的生产力冲击时减少售火量,从而可以增加后代的收入。另一方面,即使发生了良好的生产率冲击,较低的资本存量也会降低所有后代的收入。总的来说,本文表明,从长远来看,资本需求政策可以(严格地)增加代理商的福利。第二篇论文建立了静态的一般均衡模型,以研究在信息不完全的全球博弈中企业的进入和退出决策。企业的选择是战略替代品。通过分析证明了当均值生产率和以均值为条件的生产率均来自均匀分布时,单调纯策略均衡的存在和唯一性。通过数字示例可以看出,当公共信息的精确度提高时,均衡转换生产率水平将提高,结果,总行业生产率将提高。通过将资源重新分配给生产能力更高的公司,公共信息精度的提高会带来更高的福利。;第三篇论文扩展了第二篇论文中研究的问题,以检验生产力分布的形状是否以及如何影响单调性的存在。纯策略平衡。现在,平均生产率是从截断的正态分布中得出的,而以均值为条件的单个公司的生产率是从更一般的(截断的)分布中得出的,例如截断的正态分布,截断的gamma以及截断的指数分布。通过数值例子表明,当企业的生产率从非均匀分布中提取时,独特的单调纯策略均衡继续存在。与论文2一样,总生产率和每个工人的福利都随着公共信息精度的提高而增加。但是,与论文2不同的是,私人信息精度的提高对总体生产率和福利的影响取决于分布的形状。尤其是,当以平均值为条件的生产率从偏斜的截断的伽马分布中得出时,这种影响是不确定的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ma, Zhixia.;

  • 作者单位

    Iowa State University.;

  • 授予单位 Iowa State University.;
  • 学科 Economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 188 p.
  • 总页数 188
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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