The optimal joint provision of water for irrigation and hydropower in the Euphrates River: The case of conflict between Turkey and Syria.

摘要

Scope and method of study. The purpose of this study is to define the total economic benefit function of hydropower generation and irrigation for Turkey. To do this, a mathematical programming model is used to analyze the optimum allocation of surface water for hydropower generation and irrigation in the Turkish side of the Euphrates River. Furthermore, the modeling approach examines the water conflict between Turkey and Syria in order to address the question of whether or not the conflict is artificial or if there is merely not sufficient water for both riparians' needs. In addition to this, the conflict is analyzed by examining the possibility of water market issues in virtual water cases. A “Virtual Water” approach could provide incentives for downstream countries to compensate upstream countries in return for the release of more water resources.; Findings and conclusion. The results were calculated using the Generalized Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) which was set to maximize Total Net Benefit. First, three different flow conditions (average, highest and lowest) are used to define whether or not the conflict between Turkey and Syria is artificial. The total net benefit function of all three models are maximized under two comparable restrictions; (1) restriction of water flow across the border is equal to or greater than 300 M3/sc due to the 1987 agreement; (2) there is no restriction on the border. The results of these models show that there is not enough water to satisfy both countries' projects. Furthermore, a virtual water value is used to calculate the water value for Syria which is greater than the shadow price. The results indicated that if Syria pays {dollar}0.089 per cubic meter of water from the Euphrates River, it would receive more water for its own consumption.