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Towards demystification of model-free technical analysis: The power of feedback control.

机译:走向无模型技术分析的神秘化:反馈控制的力量。

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摘要

The take-off point for this dissertation is the body of literature in finance and control theory which involves stock-trading strategies based on model-free technical analysis. A salient feature of this line of research is that neither a parameterized model for stock prices nor a behavioral model involving "agents" is used. Many papers in finance documenting the "efficacy" of such trading methods are based on backtesting using historical price data. This reliance on data in lieu of a formal theory explaining successes and failures is one of the main reasons that many in the finance community have criticized this method of trading. In addition, many of these strategies are heuristic in nature which makes them difficult to carry out mathematical analysis. In direct contrast to the approaches above, the main objective of this dissertation is to further the development of a relatively new line of research emerging from control community: using simple ideas involving robust and adaptive control concepts to provide a theory explaining successes and failures of various classes of technically-based trading strategies. In a sense, we seek to "demystify" model-free technical analysis.;Analysis here is carried out under the well-known assumption of an "idealized market". In this setting we analyze the performance of various feedback-based strategies against well-known price benchmarks such as Geometric Brownian Motion. More specifically, we study the statistics for the resulting gain-loss function. We also analyze the expected drawdown in wealth; a widely-used measure of risk. In the presence of skew, we demonstrate that classical mean-variance based analysis can provide a distorted picture of the prospect for success. This can become even more crucial in "mission-critical" applications with the possibility of "model distrust". As an "offshoot" of this research, we introduce a new "conservative" reward-risk pair which not only discounts a possibly-long tail of a distribution but is also largely independent of an individual's risk-preference; i.e., utility function. To this end, the Conservative Expected Value (CEV) and Conservative Semi-Variance (CSV) are formally defined. They are calculated for some of famous probability distribution and some of their most important properties are established.
机译:本文的出发点是财务和控制理论的文献基础,涉及基于无模型技术分析的股票交易策略。该研究领域的一个显着特征是既不使用股票价格的参数化模型也不使用涉及“代理人”的行为模型。记录这种交易方法“有效性”的许多金融论文都基于使用历史价格数据的回测。这种对数据的依赖代替了解释成功与失败的形式理论,这是金融界许多人批评这种交易方法的主要原因之一。另外,许多这些策略本质上都是启发式的,这使得它们难以进行数学分析。与上述方法形成鲜明对比的是,本论文的主要目的是进一步发展来自控制界的相对较新的研究领域:使用涉及鲁棒性和自适应控制概念的简单思想,提供一种解释各种成功与失败的理论一类基于技术的交易策略。从某种意义上讲,我们寻求“揭开神秘面纱”的无模型技术分析。;这里的分析是在众所周知的“理想化市场”的假设下进行的。在这种情况下,我们将根据著名的价格基准(例如“几何布朗运动”)分析各种基于反馈的策略的效果。更具体地说,我们研究所得增益损失函数的统计量。我们还分析了预期的财富缩水;一种广泛使用的风险度量。在存在偏斜的情况下,我们证明了基于经典均值方差的分析可以提供成功前景的扭曲图景。在“关键任务”应用程序中,这可能变得更加关键,并可能导致“模型不信任”。作为这项研究的“分支”,我们引入了一个新的“保守”奖励风险对,它不仅消除了可能较长的分布尾部,而且在很大程度上与个人的风险偏好无关。即效用函数。为此,正式定义了保守期望值(CEV)和保守半方差(CSV)。针对某些著名的概率分布计算它们,并确定了它们的一些最重要的属性。

著录项

  • 作者

    Malekpour, Shirzad.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Wisconsin - Madison.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Wisconsin - Madison.;
  • 学科 Electrical engineering.;Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 147 p.
  • 总页数 147
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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